{"body":"Once, I heard a fisherman say: “If you want to catch a fish, imagine that you are the fish. Think about where you would want to be, what you would fear, where you would swim and what you would eat.”\n\nFor a long time, I have been building a product for clients. Over the last few days, I reached a serious dead end. Endless combinations of hypotheses and alternatives were producing neither a durable effect nor a strong competitive advantage.\n\nThat raised several questions. What am I missing? What am I underestimating? If the future cannot be predicted with enough accuracy, which levers can still turn experience, data and accumulated history into something useful?\n\nThe answer was simple. I need to start thinking and acting like the potential client.\n\nFunds have a daily decision cycle. I understand clearly that they do not have a magic formula or one unique analyst who knows tomorrow’s price with certainty. They work with complex context and connect it to risk and capital management. Their resilience depends on a system that can survive forecasting errors.\n\nThe more I thought about it, the clearer it became: I need to step fully into their position. Repeat their actions, logic and decisions. Go through the same pain, constraints and uncertainty that appear when capital has to be managed without knowing the future.\n\nThat led to the idea of a virtual fund. It will emulate the work of a real fund and gradually answer specific questions. What does the market actually give us? What can we do with our signals? What can we predict, and with what level of confidence? Which decisions should follow from that information?\n\nThe perspective of a forecast provider often narrows the picture to one question: will the price crash or not? A portfolio manager has other questions. What should be done if the price does crash? Under which conditions should a position be opened? When is it better to reject a trade? How should damage be limited when a forecast is wrong?\n\nCrash Brief analytics will now serve my own virtual fund. This should reveal which decisions are missing, which data is genuinely useful, which rules and strategies are needed, and what does not help in the actual management process.\n\nToday I am starting to put a virtual options-strategy fund on its feet. It will have its own model P&L and execution designed to stay as close to real market transactions as possible. As close as this can be done without managing 10 or 30 million dollars.\n\nI will share what comes out of it.","content_language":"en","day_counter":{"label":"Day 343","number":343,"start_date":"2025-09-11"},"id":"2026-08-19-why-i-am-building-a-virtual-options-fund","project_date":"2026-08-19","published_at":"2026-08-19T16:42:41+00:00","retrospective":false,"schema_version":"crash_brief_public_blog_post_v0_1","slug":"why-i-am-building-a-virtual-options-fund","source_language":"ru","source_types":["telegram"],"status":"published","summary":"Building a virtual options fund turns Crash Brief into its own client and tests which signals, decisions and risk rules are genuinely useful.","title":"Why I Am Building a Virtual Options Fund","topic":"Product development","type":"founder_post","updated_at":"2026-08-19T16:42:41+00:00","version":1}