Almost EVERYONE trades in minus (in the end)

Approaches one year, how I work on a project which forecasts behavior of BTC/ETH/SOL price, and more exactly determines moments where price can collapse. During this time I tried different methods of analysis, from indicators and Smart Money concepts, to derivative overheats and analysis of the form of options curve.

You will be surprised, but almost nothing works. Yes, I declare that practically all known methods in the best case give a result equal to throwing a coin and only some give a small advantage. This is not 70-80% accuracy, but in the best case close to 60%. Here from these fragile pieces the forecast picture is collected.

I many years thought that it can be better. Different methods, people and experience suggested that it is possible to forecast much more exactly, but everything breaks into pieces when you approach this professionally, and not amateurishly:

—Forecasts go stable, without "I want, I don't want". Every day, at any market

—Every day starts from checking yesterday's forecast

—Forecasts are made by a system which can be reproduced by anybody (expertise does not play a role)

—Estimates of forecast accuracy are made by industry standards - Brier score

If you take any public trader: blogger, expert, guru and run their forecasts through this cycle, then you will make sure that all of them will "fly past" simply because there are no systematic forecasts, no exact borders and conditions of forecast, no exact timing, no fixed outcome. All forecasts are made chaotically, in convenient time, subjectively (today one mood, tomorrow another), even interpretation of the same market data can be different, and also almost nobody counts accuracy of their forecasts by Brier.

Somebody will lose everything earlier, somebody later, somebody will trade "on paper" without putting real and meaningful money, somebody will burn out and quit.

Simply speaking, almost NOBODY from public traders on a long distance will be better than you.

Outrageous, and even you want to argue, not true?