The Virtual Fund's First Trade

Today is a special day. Our autonomous virtual fund made its first trading decision.

It made a bet on further Bitcoin growth and bought a call with a $79,500 strike that expires on August 28, 2026. The trade is unusual, and I do not want to judge it yet. We will see what comes out of it.

There was a lot of work behind this decision. I had to develop the risk, admission, and strategy systems, connect the conclusions of Crash Brief with the fund manager, and give it access to the accumulated base of metrics, backtests, statistics, and observations from the past year.

I do not know the outcome of the trade, but the choice itself surprised me a little. Downside protection is becoming more expensive across the market, while the fund chose upside. The manager explained its reasoning: "BTC had the clearest positive spot and ETF support among the admitted assets, and its call offered the cheapest premium rate of the four exact candidates. The long option keeps loss finite while preserving upside convexity if the advance extends."

The trade is virtual, but it is based entirely on real market demand, the actual order book, and volume available today. The fund bought 34.3 BTC call contracts for about $50,000. Including the premium paid, the break-even level at expiry is around $80,993, so a move above the $79,500 strike alone would not be enough.

To some extent, I agree with this decision. Even if it turns out to be a mistake, it will be a useful lesson for the system. It is designed to preserve its decisions, measure the result, and learn from its own mistakes.

It is surprising how quickly this idea became real. A few years ago, this implementation would have required a whole team and months of work. Of course, there was already a large background behind it: infrastructure built over a year, a risk assessment system, and an accumulated history of observations.

So, congratulations on the first step.